Forecast · Senate
Who will control the Senate?
CHANCE OF CONTROL
Democratic control
No party majority
Republican control
Projected seats
Expected Democratic seats
Expected Independent/other seats
Expected Republican seats
80% Democratic range
80% Republican range
Possible seat totalsHow much uncertainty surrounds the average?
The winding path to Senate control
Held seats are grouped at each end. Every segment between them represents one seat up for election.
Forecast history
How the Senate forecast has changed
Control chances and projected seats from each published forecast update.
Projected Senate seats
Forecast history starts with this update.
The trend charts will appear after the next forecast is published.
Explore Senate races
Reader tool
Build your path to Senate control
Choose winners in the races you want to call. The model will show how the chamber looks among the remaining simulations.
Your scenarioUsing the published model
Democrats—Independent/other—Republicans—
Democratic control—
No party majority—
Republican control—
Choose a race to condition the model on that outcome.
Seat changes
Projected flips
Seats where one challenger party is favored above 50% to replace the party currently holding them.