National environment
The adjusted generic-ballot margin used in this saved run.
Forecast · U.S. House · CA-40
California 40th district
Forecast update2026-11-03Since last updateEvenRace ratingLikely Democratic
Democrats win in 80% of simulations.
D
DemocratsDemocratic
80%VS
R
RepublicansRepublican
20%Projected two-party vote
52.6%47.4%
Possible margins
Democratic marginEvenRepublican margin
Why this forecast0% polling · 100% fundamentals
District history, national conditions, and candidate strength form the baseline.
Explain this forecast
Why the model sees this race this way
No qualifying race polls are used. The forecast is based on district fundamentals.
0%polling
0%Polling100%Fundamentals
What moves the projected margin
FundamentalsD+5.3 estimate × 100% weight
D+5.3
PollingNo qualifying polling used
Neutral
Combined forecastD+5.3
Detailed evidence and model inputsContributions to the fundamentals estimate
D+10.4
District election history
The weighted presidential and House results establish the district baseline.
Candidate strength
Incumbency, fundraising, and any recorded race adjustment.
Fundamentals estimate
These contributions combine before the polling blend shown above.
| 2024 presidential result · 35% | R+0.8 |
|---|---|
| 2020 presidential result · 15% | D+0.3 |
| 2024 House result · 25% | R+2.6 |
| 2022 House result · 10% | R+1.4 |
| Incumbency / open seat | Neutral |
| Fundraising adjustment | R+0.6 |
| National environment | D+10.4 |
Positive contributions favor Democrats and point left. Negative contributions favor Republicans and point right. Fundamentals contributions are then scaled by the fundamentals weight.
Forecast historyHow has the race changed?View history
Polling evidenceRecent pollsView polls
View polling average →0 qualifying polls · newest poll —
No individual qualifying poll rows are available in this saved forecast.