National environment
The adjusted generic-ballot margin used in this saved run.
Forecast · U.S. House · AZ-01
Arizona 1st district
Forecast update2026-11-03Since last updateEvenRace ratingLikely Democratic
Democrats win in 81% of simulations.
Projected Democratic flip
D
DemocratsDemocratic
81%VS
R
RepublicansRepublican
19%Projected two-party vote
52.6%47.4%
Possible margins
Democratic marginEvenRepublican margin
Why this forecast71% polling · 29% fundamentals
The polling average is blended with the district baseline.
Explain this forecast
Why the model sees this race this way
Polling and fundamentals are combined to form the projected margin.
71%polling
71%Polling29%Fundamentals
What moves the projected margin
FundamentalsD+7.3 estimate × 29% weight
D+2.1
PollingD+4.5 adjusted margin × 71% weight
D+3.2
Combined forecastD+5.3
Detailed evidence and model inputsContributions to the fundamentals estimate
D+10.4
District election history
The weighted presidential and House results establish the district baseline.
Candidate strength
Incumbency, fundraising, and any recorded race adjustment.
Fundamentals estimate
These contributions combine before the polling blend shown above.
| 2024 presidential result · 35% | R+1.1 |
|---|---|
| 2020 presidential result · 15% | D+0.2 |
| 2024 House result · 25% | R+0.9 |
| 2022 House result · 10% | R+0.1 |
| Incumbency / open seat | R+1.5 |
| Fundraising adjustment | D+0.3 |
| National environment | D+10.4 |
Positive contributions favor Democrats and point left. Negative contributions favor Republicans and point right. Fundamentals contributions are then scaled by the fundamentals weight.
Forecast historyHow has the race changed?View history
Polling evidenceRecent pollsView polls
View polling average →3 qualifying polls · newest poll 2026-10-28
| Start Date | End Date | Pollster Rating | LRAV | Sample Size | Shah | Feely | Third Party | Undecided | Weight | Adj Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026/10/26 | 2026/10/28 | B/C | L | 500 | 49% | 45% | 0% | 6% | 0.76 | D 3.1% |
| 2026/10/20 | 2026/10/23 | F | L | 851 | 49% | 43% | 5% | 4% | 0.61 | D 3.4% |
| 2026/10/01 | 2026/10/01 | F | L | 400 | 44% | 42% | 0% | 14% | 0.40 | D 0.8% |