2024 Presidential Ratings
Forecasts & Predictions
Updated July 17, 2024 at 10:03 PM
These are the 2024 HenryDRiley.com ratings for the presidential race. I use Allan Lichtman's "Keys to the White House" for the topline prediction of who will win, and my own system of 5 "keys" (polling, fundraising, senators, recent elections, and expert forecasts) to rate each state/district in the Electoral College.
Biden is favored to win by Allan Lichtman's Keys.
My Electoral College ratings predict a Biden win.
The 13 Keys to the White House
How historian Allan Lichtman's keys stand as of now. See the link at the bottom of this page for more details on how these function. A "True" (blue) rating goes for Biden, while a "False" (red) one goes for Trump. If 8 or more are true, Biden should win, but if 6 or more are false, Trump should win.
| Key | Rating |
|---|---|
| 1. Midterm Gains | Certainly False |
| 2. No Primary Contest (Democrats) | Certainly True |
| Key 3: Incumbent Seeking Re-Election | Certainly True |
| Key 4: No Third Party | Leans True |
| Key 5: Strong Short-Term Economy | Certainly True |
| Key 6: Strong Long-Term Economy | Certainly True |
| Key 7: Major Policy Change | Certainly True |
| Key 8: No Social Unrest | Leans True |
| Key 9: No Scandal | Certainly True |
| Key 10: No Foreign/Military Failure | Likely False |
| Key 11: Major Foreign/Military Success | Likely False |
| Key 12: Charismatic Incumbent | Certainly False |
| Key 13: Unharismatic Challenger | Certainly True |
| Result: | 9 True, 4 False - Biden Wins |
The Electoral College
Ratings for each state based on my 5 "keys" system, explained more in the methodology.
Biden
276
Trump
262
Safe
Likely
Lean
Tilt
Safe
Likely
Lean
Tilt