2024 Governor Nowcast
Forecasts & Predictions
Updated May 31, 2026 at 12:10 PM
This is the HenryDRiley.com Polling Nowcast for the 2024 U.S. Gubernatorial cycle. It only uses the current polling averages at the state level, and assumes that elections are held today. It also doesn't add uncertainty for undecided/third party voters, and thus more aggressive and has less uncertainty, whereas my Forecast (coming soon) will include polls and fundamentals and have more uncertainty and less aggressiveness until Election Day.
Most Americans would be governed by R/D if elections were today.
Governing party by share of national population
Using both state nowcasts and current state population estimates, populations are assigned to the party that is favored in their gubernatorial nowcast, and then added up nationally.
Democrats
1 in 5
19% of Americans
Republicans
4 in 5
81% of Americans
100 Americans
Governed by Democrat
Governed by Republican
The 2025 Governors
Nowcasted governors for each party and the Nowcast map.
Democrats
49
Republicans
51
Chance of winning
≥95%
≥80%
≥60%
≥50%
≥95%
≥80%
≥60%
≥50%
Closest races
All non-safe races listed in order of winning chances/voteshare margin.
| Seat | Democrat Voteshare | Republican Voteshare | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | 28 Seats Not Up For Re-Election | ||
| HI, NY, VT, MA, ME, NM, RI, DE, CA, CT, MN, VA, NV, PA, NJ | |||
| Ohio | 53.7% | 46.3% | |
| Michigan | 52.8% | 47.2% | |
| Montana | 52.6% | 47.4% | |
| Arizona | 51.2% | 46.1% | |
| Virginia | 52.1% | 47.9% | |
| Wisconsin | 51.7% | 48.3% | |
| Nebraska | 51.3% | 48.7% | |
| Vice Presidency | 19% Chance | 81% Chance | |
| West Virginia | 49.5% | 50.5% | |
| Texas | 45% | 52.4% | |
| FL, MD, MO, IN, MS, TN, UT, NE (Special), WY, ND | |||
| 38 Seats Not Up For Re-Election |