LIVE UPDATES: 1 IN 3 CHANCE OF AN MMSD SNOWDAY TOMORROW
Prepare for high wind/gust speeds and 2-3 inches of snow tonight through tomorrow morning.
11:59 PM
With nothing really changing between expected snowfall, wind speeds, or districts closing (still only three have), the forecast falls and is finalized at a 1 in 3, or 33.7% chance of a closure tomorrow. I’d give it a less than 10% chance personally, but the forecast says otherwise.
8:00 PM
We are finally seeing our first delays/closures from in and around Dane County, with three districts/schools, all smaller, opening late tomorrow. That number will need to climb much higher for the forecast to remain optimistic about the chance for MMSD. A reminder: MMSD will not delay or close early for weather, only completely close if necessary, per their own policy. This does make the threshold a bit higher to close.
7:15 PM
Things have stabilized in the forecast, but the reason for that is that the projected total snowfall has actually increased. However, the fact that we are getting later and later into the night and not even one other district has closed is pushing back on that momentum, so we are still at a 45% chance of a closure. If nothing changes, the forecast will freeze at midnight with around a 35% chance.
5:10 PM
The city has just announced that they will indeed launch a city-wide plowing operation tonight, covering all Madison streets. They do this when we receive at least three inches of snow in one storm. However, they made clear that it will take up to 14 hours to complete, and will not be done until Friday afternoon. No snow emergency has been declared yet, so take this announcement with a grain (or plow’s worth) of salt. (pun intended)
3:45 PM
A BIG update to end the school day, due to two things 1) I was able to actually add on the snow that has fallen so far, which I’d say is 1-2 inches, and 2) The NWS is now forecasting an additional 3-4 inches, so we are nearing the point where a closure is more likely than school, with a 49% chance. I’m currently writing this from the car (not driving), and the roads are pretty rough, lots of slippage. Numerous accidents, including some fatal, have been reported in the area, and parts of I39-90 are shut down.
2:00 PM
As the NWS now forecasts a near-30 mph wind gusts speed, the chance has climbed to around 35%.
11:30 AM
The forecast has dropped quite a bit as the forecasted gusts have now been removed from the NWS projections, bringing the chance of a closure under 25%.
11:15 AM
In a minor (but good) sign for tomorrow’s closure odds, around a dozen schools near Dane County have either decided to close early today or cancelled evening activities.
8:00 AM (December 19th)
Due to high wind speeds around 20-25 mph and expected snowfall between 2-3 inches, HDR Analytics is officially declaring tomorrow, Friday, December 20th, an ALERT DAY. Check out our newly updated forecast below for the latest MMSD closure odds. We will post occasional updates here/on Instagram. The National Weather Service has declared a Winter Weather Advisory through tomorrow morning.
I’m pretty sure MMSD won’t close unless a significant number of other districts do, but stay tuned.