It Happened
President Biden has dropped out of the presidential race. Here are my thoughts, reflections, and important updates about our polling averages and models.
This article was originally published on July 21st, 2024.
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"Kamala Harris" by Gage Skidmore is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0 .
Was this a surprise? Not really.
If you took everything that came out of the Biden campaign and the President himself at face value over the past week or so, you’d be shell-shocked right now. Biden was adamant, repeatedly telling reporters that he was staying in the race. His campaign leadership told Democratic Senators and Representatives that Biden would be the nominee, and that all of this was just “bed-wetting” that couldn’t “disenfranchise 14 million primary votes”. They sure seemed as though they were full speed ahead, with no intention or even consideration of dropping out.
If you were paying attention to the news, social media, or my Snapchat story (for those who have access), you probably had a different perspective on what was happening. We were aware that Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi, and other influential Democrats had expressed concerns to the President privately or directly asked him to step aside. By Sunday, around 35 Democratic Representatives and Senators had publicly called for this. Reports indicated that Biden's family was considering contingency plans in case he changed his mind. Biden had consulted with key strategists and advisers while isolating at home in Delaware after testing positive for COVID-19. All signs pointed to the fact that Biden's decision was not set in stone and was likely to change. I had been telling friends and family that Biden would remain committed until he wasn't. His campaign would continue to act as if everything was normal until the very last moment, as they had to. Any other approach would have suggested a lack of confidence in their candidate.
Not to brag, but I totally nailed it with my completely subjective predictions here:
A post on my personal Snapchat story from Thursday evening, and an excerpt from my article published about three weeks ago.
To be fair, when I received the alert on my watch from The New York Times, I have to admit I was still a bit in shock. I couldn't immediately start working on this article or post the news due to a family gathering, but it was definitely a significant moment, and I can’t say I was ever sure this would happen.
What happens now?
What we have already seen, and what I expect we will continue to see over the next few hours and days, is that more and more elected and influential Democrats are endorsing Harris. I think it's highly unlikely we will see any serious challengers to Harris for the nomination. Of course, literally as I’m writing this, CNN is now reporting that Sen. Joe Manchin (WV) is considering running. So, thanks Senator Manchin for ruining that. I still don’t think Manchin (or anyone else) stands a real chance, because Biden’s delegates will likely follow his advice and back Harris at the convention anyways. But in terms of actual logistics, things are a little unclear. Democrats were scheduled to hold a virtual roll-call to nominate someone before the convention, but I don’t know if that is still the case. Whenever they hold the vote, we will probably simply see most delegates vote for Harris, and maybe a handful for others. In the meantime, Harris has some thinking to do and needs to select a running mate. More on that below.
The veepstakes
The only remaining unknown in terms of who will be running this year is the Democratic nominee for Vice President. Initially, it was Kamala Harris, but now she has been promoted. It is highly probable that she will be able to choose her replacement on the ticket. Democrats appear to be leaning towards selecting a white, moderate male candidate from a swing state to balance out the ticket. The current contenders, ranked in order of likelihood to be chosen, are as follows:
Governor Roy Cooper of North Carolina is an older, term-limited swing-state governor who has been elected twice.
Governor Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania is a younger governor who was first elected in 2022 in a swing state.
Governor Andy Beshear of Kentucky is a middle-aged governor who has been elected twice in the ruby-red state of Kentucky, and is very popular.
Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona is a middle-aged former astronaut who won convincingly in 2022 and is well-liked.
I'm guessing we will probably learn who the VP pick will be in the next week or so. Technically, Harris could do what Trump did with Vance and wait until the convention if she chooses to do so.
But Henry, what about the polls? What about the forecast?
So, I have a lot of work to do. Firstly, all of the polling averages on the site are now essentially useless. My plan is to move all current presidential averages to a separate section for Biden-Trump, where they will remain available as an archive and effectively freeze. I will then recreate the pages for the Harris-Trump matchup. I will do my best to load all polls post-debate (since June 27th) into the averages, but I want to caution anyone seriously looking at them now. We should wait at least a week, probably two or three weeks, to give polling any weight, as a Harris-Trump matchup was previously hypothetical. It is still not confirmed, although Harris could be the presumptive nominee by Wednesday, according to sources.
If you attempt to load our forecast now, you will see an "under construction" screen. I will freeze and archive the forecast, and relaunch the model with Harris v. Trump on Monday, August 5th. In the meantime, I will focus on updating polling averages, recreating the forecast with new changes, features, and bug fixes, and writing methodologies and other articles for the site. There will be much to discuss in the coming weeks, as we are still about a month away from the Democratic convention.
So the election is basically over? Harris should win for sure, right?
No, absolutely not. For starters, Harris is still trailing or tied with Trump in most national polls, at best tied or a point ahead in swing-state polling, and isn't even the nominee yet and hasn't had the chance to campaign as one. This is far from over. Trump can still win this, and I have a feeling he will still be the favorite to do so when the forecast relaunches. But I do think Harris will be an improvement over Biden, and even if Democrats still lose, they probably were already in the status quo anyways, so it was a smart risk to take. I can also fully see a world in which Harris wins, but I don't think it will be in a landslide because political polarization is simply too prevalent for that. I think the best-case scenario for Democrats is around 320 electoral votes for Harris. But, I could be wrong. Maybe the age factor was really such a big weight on Biden that any other candidate beats Trump. I simply don't know yet. Only time will tell.
So, it's been a wild week. Trump was nearly assassinated, became the nominee, picked JD Vance as his running mate, and gave an insane 92-minute acceptance speech that started out strong but quickly derailed into chaos. Biden got COVID, dropped out, and endorsed his VP, who is now likely to be the second woman at the top of the ticket in three cycles, and the first woman of color to ever be in that position. Oh, and we still have three months to go! Stay tuned for the new forecast, polling averages, and articles, and let's hope we can all stay sane for the next few months. It's truly going to be crazy.