Is Memorial Really The Best In The Big Eight?
Some quick thoughts on why the Spartans still out-rank Verona in our CHEsS ratings.
Almost a month ago, I wrote about the Madison Memorial-Verona football game that was… not exactly the most entertaining three hours of football I’ve ever watched. But more importantly, it was a testament to how competitive games are often competitive not because of their scoring drives or big completions, but their defensive performances.
I also noted that Memorial had a good chance of going undefeated for the remainder of their season, which is looking extremely likely. They face Janesville Parker for their final home game on Friday and then visit Madison La Follette, who they will have no problem beating. The Spartans have a 78% and 81% chance of winning those two games, respectively, so they’ve got a 63% chance, or 2-in-3 odds, of finishing the regular season 8-1.
I believed that Verona would have a relatively easy few games but emphasized their matchup with Middleton, as that had the closest odds overall, and Middleton is typically at least decent. The Wildcats beat the Cardinals by two scores, 21-7. And then came the surprise. Verona had its closest game of the entire season against… Madison West? They only barely got away with a win, scoring just a single touchdown and shutting out the Regent offense. (West’s defense is better this year, but is struggling so far offensively)
Trust me, I have a point here; I’m getting to it. All of this is to support my argument that our Big Eight forecast isn’t broken. Yes, Memorial is currently ranked above Verona by even more than they were a week ago. Yes, they lost in a head-to-head. At the same time, they lost by only ten. Two scores. And Verona’s offense, despite having a strong run game in Austin Perez and a decent quick pass/pitch strategy, failed to score a TD the entire night, getting just one field goal off a Memorial turnover. Their sole touchdown came off a scoop-and-score after Memorial QB Owen Fiedler was brought down while rolling out left.
While Verona barely got by against West, Memorial won by 22. Verona arguably looked better than Memorial against Middleton, but the fact that they barely won against a not-so-great West team is concerning. Overall, the average strength-of-schedule (points available under CHEsS) for Memorial has been 56, while it has been just 50 for Verona. This simply means that the average win percentage of Memorial’s opponents has been higher than that of Middleton’s. Memorial has a slightly higher average margin of victory, scoring 23 more than their opponents compared to Verona’s 22.
So yeah, it’s probably an overstatement to say that Memorial is much better than Verona, which might be your takeaway when comparing their current ratings; 1479 and 1362, respectively. I’d say that these two teams are about equal overall, with Verona having a better run game, Memorial having a better passing game, and the defense side of things being about even. Memorial had a bad night when they lost 10-0. If they had a home game against the Wildcats in a week or two, I wouldn’t be surprised if they pulled off a win. Depending on how things shake out, we may see these two teams face off again in the playoffs. Only time will tell.